ORBITAL PROGRESS
§ ABOUT THE INSTITUTE
Orbital Progress is an independent research institute producing open, rigorous analysis of global space industry economics. We exist because the field deserves better data—and the people making decisions in it deserve numbers they can trust.
We decompose global space spending into three categories that most published estimates conflate: traditional government mission spending, commercially-procured government services, and genuine commercial revenue. This three-way framework reveals dynamics that aggregate numbers obscure.
Our research is intentionally conservative. We count only space-sustaining revenue—money that flows to companies building, launching, or operating space infrastructure—not the much larger pool of space-enabled terrestrial revenue. That’s why our $205B estimate for 2025 is deliberately lower than the $600B+ figures you’ll see elsewhere. The difference is definitional, not error.
Capital is flowing into the space economy on the basis of headline numbers that mix satellite TV subscriptions with GPS-enabled Uber rides. Policy is being made without distinguishing between a cost-plus SLS contract and a fixed-price Starlink subscription. We think the people making these decisions—investors, policymakers, executives—deserve cleaner signal.
$205B
2025 space-sustaining revenue (our estimate)
56%
Government share of global space spending
3×
Variance in published estimates depending on definitions
§ PATRON CIRCLE
Orbital Progress operates as a nonprofit research institute. Our founding Patron Circle provides the sustaining support that keeps our analysis independent, open, and free from commercial bias. Patron contributions are tax-deductible.
Patrons receive early access to research, invitations to private briefings, and direct input on our research agenda. If you believe the space economy deserves better data, we’d welcome a conversation.
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