OP
Orbital ProgressMARKET FORMATION // SPACE ECONOMY
RESEARCH LIBRARYOpen access · citable · indexed

Insight for the next frontier.

Original frameworks, market signals and sector studies on how commercial space markets form, where demand is emerging and what it takes to grow.

§01 · The catalogue

Explore the research.

B · 04 PUBLISHED
Brief · August 2026

The $100-Per-Kilogram Question

What happens to spacecraft design, manufacturing, orbital data centers, and market formation when launch approaches $100 per kilogram?

Dan Garretson
READING TIME 12 MIN
B · 03PUBLISHED
Brief · July 2026

From Lunar Landing to Lunar Land Rights

A self-sustaining lunar economy requires more than government missions. It requires paying customers, entrepreneurs, committed capital, and durable rights in what participants build and operate.

John Chisholm & Dan Garretson · READING TIME 5 MIN
F · 01PUBLISHED
Framework · April 2026

Sizing the Space-Sustaining Economy

A structural decomposition of a $203 billion economy. Three categories — traditional mission, commercially-procured government, genuine commercial — applied to global space-sustaining revenue 2015–2025.

W. D. Garretson
READING TIME 14 MIN
B · 02Brief
Brief · March 2026

Starliner and Artemis: Commercial Label vs. Commercial Discipline

The Starliner investigation is a case study in treating “commercial” as a contract label rather than a behavior. Published in SpaceNews.

Dan Garretson
READING TIME 5 MIN
F · 02PUBLISHED
Framework · November 2025

Missions vs. Markets: The Space Economy Needs a Better Map

A demand-first framework for understanding where value is created in the space economy, and why the current definitions fall short.

W. D. Garretson
READING TIME 12 MIN
MS · 02PUBLISHED
Market Signal · February 2026

The Ignition Choice: Build a Market or Become a Contractor

NASA's lunar Ignition program opens a real opportunity for cislunar suppliers. The companies that build repeatable products for many customers, not just one program, are the ones positioned to grow.

W. D. Garretson
READING TIME 10 MIN
B · 01PUBLISHED
Brief · December 2025

When Mission Logic Broke: Lessons from the SpaceX Inflection Point

Why one company crossed the boundary between missions and markets — and why most others, then and now, structurally could not.

W. D. Garretson
READING TIME 9 MIN
C · 01PUBLISHED
Case · February 2026

Axiom Space: Productizing Human Access to Orbit

Designing a Market for Post-ISS Human Spaceflight

W. D. Garretson
READING TIME 15 MIN