Open, citable research that tests whether a capability is becoming a market: frameworks, diagnostics, cases, and market signals.
A structural decomposition of a $203 billion economy. Three categories — traditional mission, commercially-procured government, genuine commercial — applied to global space-sustaining revenue 2015–2025.
The Starliner investigation is a case study in treating “commercial” as a contract label rather than a behavior. Published in SpaceNews.
Commercial participation is necessary but not sufficient. The distinction that matters is between mission economics and market discipline — and most of the space economy still runs on the former.
The first application of the Market Maturity Index. Launch is the most visible missions-to-market transition in the space economy — and one of the only ones that has fully cleared the threshold.
The first commercial space markets did not emerge from demand — they emerged from a narrow set of conditions that happen to look like demand in retrospect.
Why one company crossed the boundary between missions and markets — and why most others, then and now, structurally could not.
Designing a Market for Post-ISS Human Spaceflight