A three-way decomposition of the global space-sustaining economy, 2015–2025. Every figure is an estimate. This page documents how each was derived, the primary sources behind it, and how confident the institute is in it.
Space-sustaining economy. The revenue that flows to the operators who build, launch, and run space infrastructure and deliver services in space. It is deliberately narrower than the broader “space economy,” which also counts GNSS-enabled terrestrial markets (on the order of $290B) whose revenue accrues to terrestrial companies rather than to space-infrastructure operators. Every figure on this page is computed on the space-sustaining basis.
The global space-sustaining economy grew from roughly $130 billion in 2015 to about $203 billion in 2025, a net increase of approximately $70 billion.
Of that net growth, government accounted for approximately $64 billion, or about 90% (91.7% precisely). Government here means two categories combined: traditional mission spending and commercially-procured government services. Genuine commercial revenue grew by only about $6 billion net over the entire decade, cumulatively, not annually.
Government’s share of the total economy peaked near 58% in 2023 and has edged down to roughly 57% as commercial revenue inflected. Genuine commercial revenue declined year-on-year for seven consecutive years (2016 through 2022) before turning positive in 2023.
These are not accounting distinctions. They represent fundamentally different economic dynamics, with different buyers and different implications for whether markets are actually forming.
Government as operator: cost-plus contracts, bespoke systems, sovereign capability. SLS and Orion, legacy MILSATCOM, classified intelligence satellites, ESA mandatory programs, China’s crewed and lunar exploration.
Government as buyer, purchasing commercial services at fixed prices rather than developing bespoke systems: the COTS / CRS model and its descendants. Fast-growing, but still taxpayer money; the “commercial” label on a contract does not by itself prove market behavior.
Real market activity with commercial buyers paying for economic value: satellite television, Starlink broadband, satellite radio, fixed and mobile satellite services, Earth observation, launch services, ground equipment.
The institute maintains a line-by-line model in which each estimate carries a primary source and a confidence rating. A representative selection is shown below; the full model documents every line item.
| Line item | Confidence | Primary source |
|---|---|---|
| NASA: SLS / Orion / Exploration Systems | High | NASA Congressional Budget Justifications; Planetary Society historical budget dataset |
| NASA: Science Mission Directorate (cost-plus portion) | High | NASA Budget Justifications; Planetary Society dataset |
| DoD / Space Force: legacy cost-plus programs | Medium | DoD Comptroller; CSIS Aerospace Security Project; Space Force Justification Books |
| NRO / classified space programs | Low | Federation of American Scientists estimates; DNI public NIP topline |
| NOAA satellite programs | Medium | NOAA Budget Blue Book; GOES-R / JPSS program documents |
| Commercial operator revenue (TV, broadband, FSS, MSS, radio) | High | Operator-reported revenue; SIA State of the Satellite Industry; company filings |
| Commercial launch & Earth observation | Medium | SIA; Space Foundation; operator disclosures (commercial portion) |
| Non-U.S. government programs | Medium | ESA and national agency budgets; published defense and civil space estimates |
High = primary source or well-corroborated Medium = reasonable estimate Low = rough estimate, limited public data
Published sizings of the space economy range from roughly $200 billion to over $600 billion. The difference is definitional, not error. Broader estimates fold in GNSS-enabled terrestrial markets worth on the order of $290 billion. The institute excludes these because that revenue flows to terrestrial companies, not to operators of space infrastructure. The institute counts only space-sustaining revenue, and decomposes government spending rather than reporting a single blended total, which is why its figure sits at the conservative end of the published range.
| Source | Reported size | Counts GNSS-enabled terrestrial? |
|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | ~$630B | Yes |
| Space Foundation | ~$613B | Yes |
| Satellite Industry Association | ~$293B | Partial |
| Orbital Progress (space-sustaining) | ~$203B | No — excluded by design |
Each source at its broadest published scope. The larger figures fold in GNSS-enabled terrestrial markets; Orbital Progress counts only space-sustaining revenue. See the full decomposition in the F-01 report.
Revenue that flows to operators of space infrastructure or services delivered in space. GNSS-enabled terrestrial markets are excluded by design.
All figures are nominal USD unless noted. Deflators are applied in the model appendix only. Figures are estimates and are revised as sources improve.
CITE AS — Orbital Progress, “Sizing the Space-Sustaining Economy,” OP/F-01/2026.