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FRAMEWORK · 01
FRAMEWORK · 01

A three-way decomposition of a $203 billion economy. Two of the three categories are government money under different procurement conventions.

The space-sustaining economy passed $200 billion — and government drove nearly all of the last decade's growth.

A structural decomposition of the global space-sustaining economy, 2015–2025. The institute publishes the framework, the underlying numbers, and the open question that follows from them: whether the post-2023 commercial inflection is durable, or a one-company story.

W. Daniel Garretson, Ph.D. · FOUNDER, ORBITAL PROGRESS·READING TIME 14 MIN·CITE AS OP/F-01/2026
The findings, in three numbers

By the numbers.

Three figures the institute publishes alongside this analysis. Each finding is load-bearing on a number, and each number has a source.

Net commercial growth · 2015–2025
+$6B
cumulative · global · ten years
Genuine commercial revenue grew by six billion dollars net over the entire decade. Cumulatively, not annually.
Government share of net growth
90%
$64B of $70B added · 2015–2025
Traditional mission spending and commercially-procured government services accounted for nine of every ten dollars of growth.
Years of commercial decline
7
consecutive · 2016–2022 · global
Genuine commercial space revenue contracted year-on-year for seven consecutive years before inflecting in 2023.
02 · Three categories. One economic logic.

The decomposition is not an accounting distinction. It's an economic one.

Traditional mission spending, commercially-procured government services, and genuine commercial revenue represent fundamentally different economic dynamics — different buyers, different incentive structures, different implications for whether markets are actually forming. The institute treats the three categories as the load-bearing taxonomy of the space-sustaining economy and applies it across every segment it studies.

1. Regional growth, 2015–2025E

Total space-sustaining revenue by region ($B).

The global space-sustaining economy grew from roughly $130B in 2015 to just under $203B in 2025—a CAGR of about 4.3%. The United States accounts for more than half of global spending and an even larger share of the decade's growth. China more than doubled its spending. Europe grew modestly. Japan and India grew from small bases.

2. Growth sources: where did $70B come from?

Net change in spending by category, 2015–2025E ($B).

Government accounts for about 90% of net growth—roughly $64B of the $70B increase. Traditional mission spending added the most in absolute terms. Commercially-procured government grew fastest in percentage terms but from a small base. Genuine commercial revenue added only about $6B net—and even that is almost entirely Starlink.

3. The $600 billion question

Published estimates of the space economy vary by 3×.

Published estimates range from ~$200B to over $600B depending on what's counted. The difference is definitional, not error. Broader estimates include GNSS-enabled terrestrial markets worth ~$290B. We exclude these because that revenue flows to terrestrial companies, not space infrastructure operators. Our framework counts only space-sustaining revenue.

4. The three-way split

Global shares: traditional, commercially-procured government, and commercial (%).

Government's share of the space economy peaked at 58% in 2023 and edged down to 57% in 2025E as Starlink revenue surged. The commercially-procured government category—fixed-price contracts, Space Act Agreements, COTS-model procurement—remains small at about 8% but represents the policy mechanism through which markets are being built.

5. The commercial rotation

U.S. commercial revenue by segment, 2015–2025E ($B).

The U.S. commercial space market underwent a structural rotation over the decade. Satellite TV declined from $30B to $12B. SiriusXM held roughly flat. Starlink grew from zero to $10B. Without Starlink, U.S. commercial space revenue would have contracted about 18% over the decade. The “commercial space revolution” is, so far, largely a single-company story.

6. Commercial share by category

Genuine commercial revenue as share of total, by region (%).

The United States is the only major space power where genuine commercial revenue approaches government spending—commercial accounts for about 49% of U.S. space activity. In Europe the share is roughly 41%. In China it's about 19%. The U.S. also accounts for 76% of all commercially-procured government spending globally. The “commercial space revolution” is an American policy achievement as much as a market phenomenon.

For more information on the sources and calculations behind this analysis, see our methodology and sources.