§ MARKET SIGNAL · FLAGSHIP · APRIL 2026

The space-sustaining economy passed $200 billion — and the government drove nearly all of the last decade’s growth

A three-way decomposition of the global space-sustaining economy — traditional mission spending, commercially-procured government services, and genuine commercial revenue — read against a decade of growth data. The flagship analysis from Orbital Progress.

W. D. Garretson, Ph.D. · Founder · April 2026

$204.9B

2025E Total

56%

Government share

+1.3%

Commercial CAGR

77%

U.S. share of CPG

The headline number hides the real story

The global space-sustaining economy reached an estimated $205 billion in 2025. That number, by itself, tells you almost nothing. What matters is the composition — who is spending, on what terms, and whether the growth trajectory is building toward commercial sustainability or merely accumulating government outlays.

Orbital Progress decomposes this economy into three categories: traditional mission spending (cost-plus, bespoke government programs), commercially-procured government (fixed-price contracts, Space Act Agreements, COTS-model procurement), and genuine commercial revenue (real market activity with commercial buyers). The distinction matters because these three categories respond to fundamentally different incentives and follow different growth dynamics.

Where the Growth Is Coming From

Global space-sustaining economy by region, 2015–2025E ($B)

The U.S. added ~$34B over the decade, China ~$18B, and Europe ~$10B — together accounting for nearly 90% of global growth.

Government drove nearly all of the growth

Of the roughly $70 billion in net growth between 2015 and 2025, government spending — traditional and commercially-procured combined — accounts for approximately $64 billion. Genuine commercial revenue added about $6 billion net over the entire decade.

What’s Driving the Growth

Change in global space-sustaining economy, 2015–2025E ($B)

Government — traditional and commercially-procured combined — accounts for $64B of the $70B in net growth. Genuine commercial revenue added ~$6B over the entire decade.

Why Our Number Is Different

Published estimates of the space economy vary by 3× depending on what you count. The Space Foundation reports $613 billion; McKinsey says $630 billion. Our figure — $205 billion for 2025 — is deliberately lower, and that's the point.

The difference is definitional. We count only space-sustaining revenue: money that flows to companies operating, building, or launching space infrastructure. The larger figures fold in ~$290 billion in GNSS-enabled terrestrial markets — precision agriculture, financial timing, rideshare logistics — where the revenue accrues to terrestrial companies, not space operators.

Orbital Progress analysis. Space-sustaining revenue only.

The Government Takeover — Then the Turn

In 2015, genuine commercial revenue was 62% of the space-sustaining economy. By 2023, it had fallen to 42%. Government — both traditional mission spending and the newer commercially-procured model — filled the gap.

The commercially-procured government slice is the policy story of the decade. Born from NASA's COTS program, it grew from under 1% to over 8% of the total. But the headline is the 2024–25 inflection: commercial share ticked up for the first time in a decade as Starlink scaled and traditional mission growth decelerated.

Orbital Progress analysis. Shares of global space-sustaining economy.

The Great Rotation

U.S. commercial space is undergoing a structural rotation. Satellite TV — once 57% of the commercial basket — has collapsed to 22%. Starlink went from zero to nearly 19%. Without Starlink, U.S. commercial space revenue would have contracted roughly 13% over the decade.

This is not a rising-tide story. It's a substitution: one dominant revenue source declining, another ascending, with the rest of the market largely flat. The concentration in a single new entrant is striking — and carries its own risks.

Orbital Progress analysis. U.S. genuine commercial revenue by segment.

What's Inside the Commercial Basket?

The composition of commercial space revenue has transformed. Satellite TV's share halved. Ground equipment quietly grew from 11% to 22%. SiriusXM held its dollar value but its share compressed as the basket shifted.

The segment share view reveals what the absolute-dollar charts obscure: this is a market in structural transition, not steady growth. The question for the next decade is whether new revenue sources — in-orbit servicing, commercial stations, lunar logistics — can diversify what remains a concentrated basket.

Orbital Progress analysis. U.S. commercial segment shares.